Okun's law: A rereading for Mexico, 1970-2004

Abstract

We estimated the dynamic relationship between the unemployment rate and output for the Mexican Economy for annual data (1970-2004). We estimated three structural time series models by using the Kalman filter. We found a coefficient in the range 2.08-2.5. In order to avoid spuriousness, we proved for cointegration through the Johansen Procedure; finally, through the estimation of VAR’s we also proved that Granger causality runs in both senses in the three main Okun equations.