Forthcoming Articles

 

 

Heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Mexico's female and male employment

Daniel Chiquiar

Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México

 

Aldo Heffner

Banco de México

 

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, females' labor supply, labor market gender equality.

JEL Classification: D10, E24, J16, J22.

Abstract

We decompose the differential between the females´ and males´ employment decreases during the pandemic in Mexico. An important part of the differential is associated with a labor supply contraction of married females with children at their household. Another part reflects a larger across-the-board decrease in female informal employment levels, independently of the initial composition of gender employment across sectors. The larger initial share of female employment in the most affected sectors does not have an important contribution.

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Regulation through reference prices

Alfredo Salgado

Banco de México

 

Keywords: regulation, reference prices, welfare gains.

JEL Classification: C7, D4, D9, L1, L2, L5.

Abstract

We analyze the role of reference prices on competition and welfare in a circular city model where paying prices above a reference negatively affects consumers' utility. Agents interact in a three-stage game. First, a policymaker chooses a reference price; secondly, firms make their entry decision; finally, firms compete in prices while consumers make their consumption decisions. We find that in equilibrium the market price and the optimal reference price always coincide, reducing consumer prices and implying a net welfare gain.

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Social mobility and gender: An analysis by federal entity

Raymundo M. Campos-Vazquez

El Colegio de México

 

José Daniel Gutiérrez Dorantes

El Colegio de México

 

Keywords: social mobility, gender, regional economics, Mexico.

JEL Classification: J62, N36, N96, R10.

Abstract

This work studies social mobility by gender at the regional and state level in Mexico. Two surveys designed to measure social mobility in Mexico are used, the 2016 Module of Intergenerational Social Mobility (Módulo de Movilidad Social Intergeneracional) and the 2017 ESRU Social Mobility Survey (Encuesta ESRU de Movilidad Social). An index of socioeconomic status is constructed both for the current household (children) and the household of origin (parents) based on retrospective questions from when the respondent was 14 years old. Using rank-rank regressions, we find that at the national level, women have lower intergenerational persistence and lower expected rank than men. At the regional and state level, those results are not so statistically clear. In the lower end of the socioeconomic distribution, expected ranks are approximately the same across states; however, at the upper end, it is observed that men have higher expected ranks than women in 13 states.

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The influence of femicide on criminal behavior: An empirical approach using economic complexity for crime prevention

Max Lugo Delgadillo

Abstract

Based on the economic complexity methodology of Hausmann et al. (2013), I characterized a crime evolution ordering for Mexico. Starting from the methodology, this crime evolution ordering is defined as a structure of crimes based in their complexity (defined in terms of capabilities that are needed to commit them). This arrangement showed that the most complex crimes are robbery in collective public transport, robbery in individual transport, counterfeiting, and theft of auto parts. Defining a network of relationships between crimes, femicide and rape were found to be the crimes with the greatest centrality or influence in the criminal network. This results implies that a policy to prevent femicide and rape could have the most positive impact on criminality, in general, compared to preventing another crime. The results put in focus the importance of preventing violence against women in the design of preventive policies to combat crime in Mexico. This research uses quantitative crime data to create a crime evolution ordering for public policy interventions. Also, since the model can be re-interpreted as a spectral clustering algorithm, it could also contributes to the literature on machine learning applications in public policy.

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The evolution of the economy of Puerto Rico during the post-war: A network analysis

Héctor Romero-Ramírez

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

 

Keywords: input output, mathematical, industrial policy, economy of Puerto Rico.

JEL Classification: R150, C020, L520.

Abstract

This paper studies the evolution of the productive structure of Puerto Rico between 1967 and 1992. In order to examine the evolution, Input-Output, and network analysis techniques were used, which allowed us to illustrate the significant relationships in the structure. Diameter and Density were estimated, and it was found that economic activity increased between 1967 and 1977. However, between 1982 and 1992, economic activity decreased. In addition, it was found that Electricity and Chemical Products had significant Outdegree measures but had minimal Indegree measures, so they bought small amounts from the rest of the economy.

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Regional sentiment indices and their association with timely indicators of economic activity in Mexico 2016-2021

Leonardo Egidio Torre Cepeda

Eva Edith González González 

Luis Ramón Casillas Pérez Soto

Jorge Alberto Alvarado Ruiz

 

Keywords: sentiment analysis, neural networks, regional analysis, Mexico.

JEL Classification: C45, R11, R15.

Abstract

We estimate sentiment indexes at the regional and national level using text data obtained from the Programa Trimestral de Entrevistas a Directivos del Banco de México, used to elaborate the Report on the Regional Economies, regarding the factors that the interviewed consider affected, affect, or could affect economic activity in their sector o state. Using text data from those quarterly interviews performed from January 2016 to January 2021, we associate these indexes with different indicators, hard and soft, of regional and national economic activity published by INEGI, and obtain positive and statistically significant correlations among the sentiment indexes and some economic activity indicators. Since the sentiment indexes can be estimated relatively faster than most of the traditional economic indicators analyzed, this paper outlines the relevance of the text data contained in the Programa Trimestral de Entrevistas a Directivos to supplement the information offered by the latter indexes.

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Skills sought by companies in the Mexican labor market: An analysis of online job vacancies

Raymundo M. Campos-Vazquez

El Colegio de México

 

Julio César Martínez Sánchez

El Colegio de México

 

Keywords: skills, labor market, digital data.

JEL Classification: J21, J23, J71.

Abstract

The hiring requirements set by companies extend beyond academic qualifications. Now, candidates are expected to seamlessly integrate into teams, solve problems, and communicate effectively with their peers. Analyzing 646,036 online job openings in Mexico (August 2021- June 2022), we found that social (26%) and cognitive (22%) skills are the most sought after. Moreover, when higher education is paired with cognitive skills, companies offer a 6% higher salary. Additionally, when job listings specify gender, the salary proposed to women is 12% lower than that for men. These insights suggest the necessity to modernize the educational system and cultivate the skills employer’s demand.

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The quality of human capital and Mexico's economic growth

Juan Manuel Ocegueda

Marco Tulio Ocegueda

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Labor productivity and remuneration across Mexico's manufacturing industry: A spatial approach

Enrique González

Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe

 

Jesús López

Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe

 

René Cabral

EGADE Business School, Tecnológico de Monterrey

 

Keywords: manufacturing productivity labor, spatial econometrics, spillover effects.

JEL Classification: O40, R11, C21.

Abstract

This document investigates the relationship between wages and labor productivity in Mexico, considering the territorial dimension and, within it, the impact that the productivity of neighboring entities has on local wages, given the geographical proximity. Results show that an increase in labor productivity impacts remuneration. Moreover, an increase in productivity in a particular state positively impacts the remunerations of neighboring states. The results allow us to understand that territorial productivity has a spillover effect on the remunerations of neighboring territories.