Potential product and economic cycles in Mexico, 1980.1-2006.4
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v23i1.139Keywords:
potential output, output gap, business cycles, structural time series models, Kalman filterAbstract
Through the use of Structural Times Series Models we estimated: potential output, the output gap and the business cycles for the Mexican GDP (1980.1-2006.4). We found that: a) the potential output has varied sharply for two different time periods: 2.1% (1980.4-1994.4) and 3.7% (1995.4-2006.4); b) great component of seasonality: Q1 and Q3 are of slow growth (below average) and Q2 Q4 above average; c) we detected that the peaks and troughs have been progressively less pronounced since the year 2000.
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