45-vol. 23, no. 1, january-june, 2008
Articles

Potential product and economic cycles in Mexico, 1980.1-2006.4

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  • Eduardo Loría,
  • Manuel G. Ramos,
  • Leobardo De Jesús
Eduardo Loría
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Manuel G. Ramos
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Leobardo De Jesús
Universidad Autónoma del Estado México
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v23i1.139

Published 2008-01-01

Keywords

  • potential output,
  • output gap,
  • business cycles,
  • structural time series models,
  • Kalman filter

How to Cite

Loría, E., Ramos, M. G., & De Jesús, L. (2008). Potential product and economic cycles in Mexico, 1980.1-2006.4. Estudios Económicos De El Colegio De México, 23(1), 25–47. https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v23i1.139

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Abstract

Through the use of Structural Times Series Models we estimated: potential output, the output gap and the business cycles for the Mexican GDP (1980.1-2006.4). We found that: a) the potential output has varied sharply for two different time periods: 2.1% (1980.4-1994.4) and 3.7% (1995.4-2006.4); b) great component of seasonality: Q1 and Q3 are of slow growth (below average) and Q2 Q4 above average; c) we detected that the peaks and troughs have been progressively less pronounced since the year 2000.

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