Forthcoming Articles
Determinants of corruption in Latin America: A country-level analysis with a Bayesian approach
Héctor Flores Márquez
Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla
Adrián Jiménez Gómez
Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla
Keywords: corruption, Bayesian models, Latin America, IVBMA.
JEL Classification: C01, C15, H7, H19.
Abstract
Corruption is a social phenomenon that has a profound effect in the Latin American region, for this reason, it is proposed to find the causes that contribute to its development. The Bayesian Model Averaging with Instrumental Variables (IVBMA) methodology is used to find robust determinants of corruption in 19 Latin American countries. 23 regressors are considered with observations from 2013 to 2020. The IVBMA carries out 8,388,608 models, in order to extract the most robust determinants. It is revealed that institutional and economic elements are better predictors of corruption in the region.
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Women’s decisions on labor and care-work arrangement in Mexico
Diego Alejo Vázquez-Pimentel
Tecnológico de Monterrey
Keywords: discrete choice, care work, microsimulations, child care.
JEL Classification: C25, H30, J08, J13.
Abstract
This paper develops a discrete choice model to analyze the labor and child care decisions of Mexican women with children under five years of age. A mixed logit model is used to simulate the potential effects of public policies on those decisions. Using data from the National Survey on Time Use, it shows that disposable income, leisure, and the number of child care options can explain women’s labor and care decisions. In addition, it shows that the presence of children under two years old in the home decreases a woman’s probability of entering the labor market. Alternatively, the presence of children between three and five years old or grandparents who are able to provide care increases it. Policy simulations suggest that the most effective policy to increase women’s participation in the labor market is a reduction of the marginal rate of the personal income tax for women working in the formal sector who have children under five years old, compared to other options such as tax credits and conditional cash transfers for women in the formal sector. All the policies simulated have limitations, since the poorest women are employed in the informal sector.
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Treating equals equally and unequals unequally in one-sided matching markets
David Cantala
El Colegio de México
Saúl Mendoza-Palacios
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Keywords: one-sided matching, optimal transportation theory, Pareto optimality, core.
JEL Classification: C61, C62, C78, D51, D79.
Abstract
We introduce in the one-sided assignment game by Shapley and Scarf (1974) the requirement called “Treating equals equally and unequal unequally” (TEEUU). We model an assignment as a measurable function that assigns to each type of agent a type of good. We establish: 1) a method, originated in optimal transportation theory, to find a TEEUU assignment in the core whenever it exists- by searching a Pareto optimal assignment- and 2) conditions under which a TEEUU assignment in the core always exists.
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Classical demands and informal supplies: Two key missing pieces of Mexico's growth puzzle
Alain Ize
Columbia University
Keywords: growth, import substituting industrialization, global competitiveness, captive.
JEL Classification: 040, 054, F10.
Abstract
Why did Mexico’s growth declined so much after the economy opened up? And why so little growth despite so many exports? The narratives proposed to explain these puzzles miss two key pieces: classical demands and informal supplies. To grow faster, the country needs to focus not just on its export supply capacity but also on its capacity to grow domestically and enhance productivity by pulling in informal labor. In a globalized world, this requires developing export niches that generate sufficient domestic value, and producing goods and services that are more innovative, more attractive and with more dynamic demands.
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The impact of trade on income inequality in Mexico
Andrea Bernini
University of Oxford
Olaf J. de Groot
United Nations
Keywords: trade and labor market, trade policy, income distribution, inequality.
JEL Classification: F16, O24, O15, D63.
Abstract
Income inequality remains a significant concern in Mexico, despite a slight decrease in its measure in recent decades. This paper investigates the impact of changes in trade patterns resulting from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on income inequality in Mexico over the past 20 years. Through a decomposition into within- and between-sector inequality, this paper reveals that the contribution of the latter has increased in an environment characterized by decreasing overall income inequality. Trade accounts for approximately 14.5% of the total change in between-sector income inequality, representing the most substantial contribution among the factors identified in this study.
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Professionalization of Airbnb hosts in Mexico City: A structural modeling approach
Juan José Merino
El Colegio de México A.C
Edwin Muñoz-Rodríguez
El Colegio de México A.C
Keywords: sharing economy; structural econometrics; peer-to-peer markets; market structure; professionalization.
JEL Classification: C59, L11, L83, L86, Z31.
Abstract
We offer a first approach to the demand and supply structure of Airbnb in Mexico City using a unique panel dataset of daily listings and rentals on the platform. We find descriptive evidence of a large sector of professional hosts. We estimate various models of demand accommodating price endogeneity and taste heterogeneity, as well as a supply model under the assumption of Bertrand-Nash's competition. We consistently find that professional hosts have lower marginal costs than nonprofessional hosts. We also find that overall price-cost margins are high regardless hosts' professionalization status, and slightly higher in the case of professional ones. Finally, motivated by a worldwide regulatory trend, we investigate counterfactually the effect of producer and consumer ad valorem taxes that discriminate between types of hosts.
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Quarterly disaggregation and timely estimation using latent variables: An application to Mexico's ecological accounts
Francisco Corona
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía
René Benavidez-Maruri
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía
Alejandro Román Vásquez
Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana
Keywords: cointegration, partial least squares, nowcasting, combination rule, pseudo-real time.
JEL Classification: C22, C32, Q50.
Abstract
This paper proposes an econometric approach to temporally disaggregate and timely estimate different panels of time series by extracting latent variables using the Partial Least Squares method. Specifically, the procedure is based on estimating common factors by maximizing the comovements of different frequencies of time series, which allows a temporally disaggregate and timely estimate the series of the interest. The empirical application is carried out for some series of the Ecological Accounts of Mexico and we conclude that the approach generates accurate nowcasts, and, by providing longer time series with quarterly frequency, it allows the generation of public policy. Finally, by implementing a Monte Carlo experiment, we conclude that the procedure can be extended to several sets of cointegrated time series.