Main determinants in Mexico's monetary policy decisions: An econometric analysis

  • Isela Elizabeth Téllez León Instituto Politécnico Nacional
  • Francisco Venegas Martínez Instituto Politécnico Nacional
Keywords: binary probit models, monetary policy, macroeconomic variables, yield curve
JEL Classification: C18, E52, E44


This paper identifies the determinants that affect the probability of deviations from the target interest rate (overnight interbank rate) of Bank of Mexico, through the development of several binary probit models. Among, the determinants of monetary policy decisions of Bank of Mexico several macroeconomic variables are identified in Mexico and the United States and, particularly, some nodes of the Treasury Certificates yield curve. The combination of these variables provides an adequate specification based on standard information criteria from econometric analysis.


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How to Cite
Téllez LeónI., & Venegas MartínezF. (2013). Main determinants in Mexico’s monetary policy decisions: An econometric analysis. Estudios Económicos, 28(1), 79-108.
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