An econometric assessment of the official historical estimates for the state-level economic activity indicators of Mexico

  • Francisco Corona Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía
  • Jesús López-Pérez Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía
Keywords: State GDP, combination rule, restricted forecast, Mexico national system accounts
JEL Classification: C01, C53, E27


This paper shows an econometric assessment of the Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity (ITAEE) retropolation until 1980. The results obtained are then compared empirically with alternative retropolation procedures that uses nominal state-level Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as temporal restrictions as the works of German-Soto (2005) and for an alternative of Guerrero and Corona (2018b), where they incorporate GDP nominal information as temporal restrictions. We conclude that the ITAEE’s retropolation until 1980 carried out in this work has a solid econometric background and better structural performance with respect to other approaches considered in the current investigation.


Bai, J. y P. Perron. 2003. Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18 (1): 1-22.

German-Soto, V. 2005. Generación del producto interno bruto mexicano por entidad federativa, 1940-1992, El Trimestre Económico, 72(287): 617-653.

Guerrero, V.M. y F. Corona. 2018a. Retropolating some relevant series of Mexico’s System of National Accounts at constant prices: The case of Mexico City’s GDP, Statistica Neerlandica, 72(4): 495-519.

Guerrero, V.M. y F. Corona. 2018b. Retropolación hasta 1980 de algunas series del sistema de cuentas nacionales de México, realidad, datos y espacio, Revista Internacional de Estadística, 9(3): 98-119.

Guerrero, V.M. y D. Peña. 2003. Combining multiple time series predictors: a useful inferential procedure, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 116(1): 249-276.

Guerrero, V.M. y F.H. Nieto. 1999. Temporal and contemporaneous disaggregation of multiple economic time series, Test, 8: 459-489.

INEGI. 2019. Indicador trimestral de la actividad económica estatal, México,

INEGI. 2019.

Romer, C.D. 1989. The prewar business cycle reconsidered: New estimates of gross national product, 1869-1908, Journal of Political Economy, 97(1): 137.

van der Ploeg, F. 1982. Reliability and the adjustment of sequences of large economic accounting matrices, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (General), 145(2): 169-194.

Verbesselt, J., R. Hyndman, G. Newnham y D. Culvenor. 2010. Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series, Remote Sensing of Environment, 114(1): 106-115.

Zeileis, A., C. Kleiber, W. Krämer y K. Hornik. 2003. Testing and dating of structural changes in practice, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 44(1-2): 109-123.

How to Cite
CoronaF., & López-PérezJ. (2020). An econometric assessment of the official historical estimates for the state-level economic activity indicators of Mexico. Estudios Económicos, 35(2), 193-212.
  • Abstract viewed - 975 times
  • PDF (Spanish) downloaded - 434 times
  • XML (Spanish) downloaded - 21 times