The economic cycle of productivity and its relation with the political cycle in Mexico, 1993.1 - 2014.4

  • Vicente Germán-Soto Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila
  • Cesáreo Gámez Garza Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León
Keywords: political-business cycle, productivity, unit roots
JEL Classification: C22, E32, J24, O47

Abstract

The political-business cycle (PBC) theory sustains that economies are positively influenced in the last year of each government administration and also they tend to slowdown in the first year. To investigate this hypothesis, we analyze the cycle of productivity of the manufacturing industry in Mexico along 1993.1-2014.4. Results from dynamic models indicate that strength of productivity is relatively minor for the quarters 1 and 4, a finding that is related to the political cycle because elasticity also falls in the quarters of the first year of government and increases in the last.

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Published
01-01-2017