47-vol. 24, núm. 1, enero-junio, 2009
Artículos

Los efectos a corto plazo de la política fiscal en México: un estudio empírico

pdf

PDF (English)
  • Víctor M. Cuevas Ahumada
Víctor M. Cuevas Ahumada
Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Azcapotzalco
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v24i1.127

Publicado 2009-01-01

Palabras clave

  • política fiscal,
  • economía mexicana,
  • modelos SVAR y GVAR

Cómo citar

Cuevas Ahumada, V. M. (2009). Los efectos a corto plazo de la política fiscal en México: un estudio empírico. Estudios Económicos De El Colegio De México, 24(1), 109–144. https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v24i1.127

Métrica

Resumen

En este trabajo se investigan los efectos de corto plazo de la política fiscal en México. La evidencia empírica demuestra que una expansión fiscal, proveniente de una baja en los ingresos públicos, incrementa la base monetaria, la tasa de interés y los precios, deprecia el tipo de cambio real no obstante el pago de mayores intereses a los inversionistas, fortalece la actividad económica y deteriora la balanza comercial. Un hallazgo interesante es que la moneda se deprecie en términos reales a pesar de la tendencia alcista de las tasas de interés domésticas, lo cual es consistente con el enfoque riesgo país de la política fiscal.

 

pdf

PDF (English)

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Citas

  1. Agénor, P. and A. Hoffmaister (1997). Money, Wages and Inflation in Middle Income Developing Countries, IMF Working Paper, no. 174.
  2. Ambler, S. and A. Paquet (1996). Fiscal Spending Shocks, Endogenous Growth, Spending and Real Business Cycles, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 20 (January-March), 237-256.
  3. Amisano, G. and C. Giannini (1997). Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics, 2nd ed., Berlin, Springer-Verlag.
  4. Arias, L. and V. Guerrero (1988). Un estudio econométrico de la inflación en México de 1970 a 1987, documento de investigación, no. 65, DIE, Banco de México.
  5. Backus, D. and K. Kehoe (1992). International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles, American Economic Review, 82(4), 864-888.
  6. Ball, L. and G. Mankiw (1995). What do Budget Deficits do? in Budget Deficits and Debt: Issues and Options. A symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Wyoming, August 31-September 2.
  7. Bank of Mexico (2009). Statistical Series, http://www.banxico.org.mx.
  8. Baqueiro, A., A. Díaz de León, and A. Torres (2003). ¿Temor a la flotación o a la inflación? La importancia del traspaso del tipo de cambio a los precios, documento de investigación, no. 2, DIE, Banco de México.
  9. Blanchard, O. (1993). Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators, in H. A. Verbon and F. Van Winden (Eds.), The Political Economy of Government Debt, North-Holland, 307-325.
  10. Blanchard, O. (1985). Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons, Journal of Political Economy, 93(2), 223-247.
  11. Blanchard, O. (1984). Current and Anticipated Deficits, Interest Rates and Economic Activity, European Economic Review, 25(1), 7-27.
  12. Blanchard, O. (1981). Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates, American Economic Review, 71(1), 132-143.
  13. Blanchard, O. and S. Fischer (1990). Lectures on Macroeconomics, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  14. Blanchard, O. and R. Dornbusch (1984). US Deficits, the Dollar and Europe, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 148, 89-113.
  15. Botman, D. and M. Kumar (2006). Fundamental Determinants of the Effects of Fiscal Policy, IMF Working Papers, no. 76, Washington.
  16. Branson, W., A. Fraga and R. Johnson (1985). Expected Fiscal Policy and the Recession of 1982, International Finance Discussion Paper, no. 272, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington.
  17. Cardoso, E. (1991). Deficit Finance and Monetary Dynamics in Brazil and Mexico, Journal of Development Economics, 37(1-2), 173-197.
  18. Catao, L. and M. Terrones (2003). Fiscal Deficits and Inflation, IMF Working Paper, no. 65, 1-32.
  19. Cuevas, V. and F. Chávez (2007). Déficit, deuda y reforma fiscal en México, Problemas del Desarrollo, 38(148), 69-97.
  20. De Mello, L., P. Kongsrud and R. Price (2004). Saving Behaviour and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy, OECD ECO/WKP, no. 397.
  21. Dickey, D. and W. Fuller (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  22. Dickey, D. and W. Fuller (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.
  23. Dickey, D., W. Bell and R. Miller (1986). Unit Roots in Time Series Models: Tests and Implications, The American Statistician, 40(1), 12-26.
  24. Doan, T. (2000). RATS User’s Manual, Version 5, Estima.
  25. Démenech, R., D. Taguas and J. Varela (2000). The Effects of Budget Deficit on National Savings in the OECD, Economic Letters, 69(3), 377-383.
  26. Dornbusch, R., F. Sturzenegger and H. Wolf (1990). Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 1-64.
  27. Dornbusch, R. (1986). Flexible Exchange Rates and Excess Capital Mobility, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 209-226.
  28. Easterly, W. and S. Rebelo (1993). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32 (December).
  29. Eichengreen, B. (2000). Hacía una nueva arquitectura financiera internacional: propuesta después de la crisis asiática, Oxford University Press.
  30. Elliott, G., T. Rothenberg and J. Stock (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root, Econometrica, 64(4), 813-836.
  31. Engle, R. and C. Granger (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing, Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
  32. Feldstein, M. (1984). Can an Increased Budget Deficit be Contractionary?, NBER Working paper, no. 1434, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  33. Flemming, M. (2000). Financial Market Implications of the Federal Debt Paydown, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 221-251.
  34. Frenkel, J. and A. Razin (1987). The Mundell-Fleming Model a Quarter Century Later: A Unified Exposition, IMF Staff Papers, 34(4), 567-620.
  35. Fuller, W. A. (1976). Introduction to Statistical Time Series, New York, Wiley.
  36. Galindo, L. and H. Catalán (2004). Los efectos de la política monetaria en el producto y los precios en México: un análisis econométrico, Economía, Sociedad y Territorio, special dossier, 65-101.
  37. Gregory, A., A. Head and J. Raynauld (1997). Measuring World Business Cycles, International Economic Review, 38(3), 677-701.
  38. Hamilton, J. (1994). Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press.
  39. INEGI (2009). http://www.inegi.gob.mx.
  40. Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  41. Kwiatkowski, D., et al. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary Against the Alternative of a Unit Root, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
  42. Lucas, R. (1990). Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical View, Oxford Economic Papers, no. 42.
  43. Lütkepohl, H. (2006). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, 2nd. ed., New York, Springer.
  44. MacKinnon, J. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618.
  45. Martin, R. and M. Fardmanesh (1990). Fiscal Variables and Growth: A CrossSectional Analysis, Public Choice, 64(3), 239-252.
  46. McDermott, J. and R. Wescott (1996). An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments, IMF Staff Papers, 43(4), Washington.
  47. Patterson, K. (2000). An Introduction to Applied Econometrics: A Time Series Approach, MacMillan Press LTD, London.
  48. Pérez-López, A. (1996). Un estudio econométrico sobre la inflación en México, documento de investigación, no. 4, DIE, Banco de México, 1-49.
  49. Pesaran, M. and Y. Shin (1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models, Economic Letters, 58(1), 17-29.
  50. Phillips, P. and P. Perron (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression, Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  51. Reinhart, V. and B. Sack (2000). The Economic Consequences of Disappearing Government Debt, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 163-220.
  52. Rogers, J. and P. Wang (1994). Output, Inflation, and Stabilization in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from Mexico, Journal of Development Economics, 46(2), 271-293.
  53. Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48. Stokey, N. and S. Rebelo (1995). Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes, Journal of Political Economy, 103(3), 519-550.
  54. Tanzi, V. and H. Zee (1997). Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth, IMF Staff Papers, 44(2), 179-209.
  55. Walsh, C. (2003). Monetary Theory and Policy, MIT Press, Cambridge.