The economic benefits and costs of COVID-19 mitigation measures in Mexico

  • Rubén Irvin Rojas Valdés Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Keywords: COVID-19, Mexico, cost-benefit, epidemic
JEL Classification: H12, D16, H42

Abstract

In this paper I calculate the daily flows of COVID-19 cases under the scenario of social distance and restricted economic activity implemented during the first months after the beginning of the epidemic, and under a counterfactual uncontrolled scenario with no mitigation measures. I estimate that social distance policies reduce the number of COVID-19 cases by 33%, saving over 292,000 lives. The benefits of these measures are monetized as 526 billion USD. Under a plausible economic recovery trajectory, I estimate that the net cost of mitigation in terms of output gap is equal to 35% of Mexico’s 2019 GDP.

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Published
14-01-2021
How to Cite
Rojas ValdésR. (2021). The economic benefits and costs of COVID-19 mitigation measures in Mexico. Estudios Económicos, 36(1), 27-56. https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v36i1.415
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