An empirical analysis of real commodity price trends: Aggregation, model selection and implications

  • John T. Cuddington Georgetown University
  • Hong Wei Georgetown University
Keywords: Presch-Singer hypothesis, geometric index


This paper re-examines the empirical validity of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the relative price of primary commodities in terms of manufacturing goods. The empirical findings based on arithmetic and geometric commodity price indices are compared. When Grilli-Yang's arithmetic mean index is employed, the findings regarding commodity price trends are inconclusive. A new geometric mean index, in contrast, yields results that are robust.


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How to Cite
CuddingtonJ., & WeiH. (1992). An empirical analysis of real commodity price trends: Aggregation, model selection and implications. Estudios Económicos, 7(2), 159-179.
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