TY - JOUR AU - Loría, Eduardo AU - Salas, Emmanuel PY - 2014/07/01 Y2 - 2024/03/29 TI - Cycles, economic growth and crisis in Mexico, 1980.1-2013.4 JF - Estudios Económicos de El Colegio de México JA - EE VL - 29 IS - 2 SE - Articles DO - 10.24201/ee.v29i2.71 UR - https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/71 SP - 131-161 AB - <p>By using the X-12-ARIMA procedure and the HP filter (λ=1 096) with end-of-sample correction (St. Amant and van Norden, 1997; Sarabia, 2010), we identified the growth cycles and estimated the potential output for the Mexican economy (1980.1- 2013.4). We found that: a) there have been six cycles, b) their duration is of about 15-22 quarters, c) their amplitude regarding the potential output varies between 4.46% and -6.48%, d) the expansionary phases never have been above the former data, thus it can be considered as an alarm signal of the end of a cycle, and e) by 2013.4 the Mexican economy was 2.5% below.</p> ER -